NBA Yesterday Postmortem

Date: 2026-03-26 | This page keeps the whole strategy in one place: provider/base moves, snapshot-adjusted moves, rebuilt lineups, actual outcomes, and the players the model helped or hurt.

FanDuel

snapshot_id 3058 | 2026-03-26 | slate Main | notes prod

Snapshot vs Base

Base lineup actual286.50
Snapshot lineup actual272.90
Snapshot minus base-13.60

Perfect Reference

Perfect lineup actual364.10
Gap vs snapshot lineup+91.20
Snapshot ID3058
Snapshot timestamp used2026-03-26 22:50:03

Strategy Direction

Read each miss in three layers: provider/base move, snapshot levers, and actual outcome. If base moved correctly but adjusted made it worse, tune levers. If base was wrong, tune beneficiary and minutes logic first.

Base Projection Lineup (rebuilt from snapshot pool)

Objective314.89
Actual286.50
Salary59,900
SlotPlayerTeamSalaryBaseAdjActualProj Min
PG
Daniss Jenkins
Minutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET750040.9943.2134.9039.00
PG
Marcus Sasser
2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET410022.2325.048.9022.00
SG
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL770038.2941.9230.0035.00
SG
Mikal Bridges
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYK590028.1227.4516.0034.00
SF
Ausar Thompson
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET650040.1843.8629.8034.00
SF
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling SmashContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET400027.2331.7428.6030.00
PF
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterContrarianStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL970047.5451.9850.3037.00
PF
Miles Bridges
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHA610028.7930.2226.5029.00
C
Jalen Duren
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET840041.5239.5161.5032.00

Snapshot Projection Lineup (rebuilt from snapshot pool)

Objective339.87
Actual272.90
Salary60,000
SlotPlayerTeamSalaryBaseAdjActualProj Min
PG
Daniss Jenkins
Minutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET750040.9943.2134.9039.00
PG
Jalen Suggs
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL690034.6234.7119.8030.00
SG
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL770038.2941.9230.0035.00
SG
Mikal Bridges
ChalkPossible OvertimeHigh Team Total
NYK590028.1227.4516.0034.00
SF
Ausar Thompson
High ValueContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET650040.1843.8629.8034.00
SF
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling SmashContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET400027.2331.7428.6030.00
PF
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterContrarianStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL970047.5451.9850.3037.00
PF
Tobias Harris
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET640029.5733.1936.3031.00
C
Wendell Carter
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL540028.0031.8127.2029.00

Perfect Lineup Reference (actual points)

Objective364.10
Actual364.10
Salary60,000
SlotPlayerTeamSalaryBaseAdjActualProj Min
PG
Jalen Brunson
StarterMinutes MonsterChalkStudPossible Overtime
NYK900041.4243.9648.9037.00
PG
Jeremiah Fears
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOP440016.7618.4925.4019.00
SG
Desmond Bane
StarterChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL770038.2941.9230.0035.00
SG
Malik Monk
StarterContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SAC620026.9227.1228.9028.00
SF
DeMar DeRozan
StarterPopped OffHigh ValueMinutes MonsterContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SAC710029.2728.4856.7029.00
SF
Kon Knueppel
StarterPopped OffHigh ValueContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHA630027.7428.5849.2032.00
PF
Tobias Harris
StarterContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET640029.5733.1936.3031.00
PF
Derik Queen
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOP450020.2920.2827.2019.00
C
Jalen Duren
StarterPopped OffHigh ValueChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET840041.5239.5161.5032.00

Saved Lineups

No NBASavedLineups rows found for this date/site.

Starting vs Ending Snapshot Projections

Sorted by biggest base-projection move. Click a player row to see the full day chart.
PlayerTeamActualStart BaseEnd BaseDelta BaseStart AdjEnd AdjDelta AdjStart CeilingEnd CeilingDelta CeilingStart MinEnd MinDelta Min
Daniss JenkinsDET34.9030.3740.99+10.6230.2843.21+12.9342.9853.30+10.3128.0039.00+11.00
Ausar ThompsonDET29.8030.8840.18+9.3031.9443.86+11.9243.1652.64+9.4825.0034.00+9.00
Kevin HuerterDET28.6020.1527.23+7.0822.1831.74+9.5633.4140.53+7.1222.0030.00+8.00
Tristan da SilvaORL21.4022.0626.41+4.3524.5629.84+5.2736.8740.02+3.1425.0030.00+5.00
Jamal CainORL20.0019.4316.05-3.3820.9218.50-2.4128.3823.96-4.4223.0019.00-4.00
Dylan CardwellSAC10.0026.1122.74-3.3724.7424.18-0.5638.6934.70-3.9924.9020.83-4.07
Saddiq BeyNOP29.7027.1830.52+3.3425.1426.77+1.6337.9038.43+0.5334.6535.00+0.35
Jeremiah FearsNOP25.4019.8116.76-3.0519.0618.49-0.5832.7729.94-2.8324.5720.52-4.05
Devin CarterSAC21.6031.5229.35-2.1728.7532.80+4.0544.0342.61-1.4330.8228.96-1.86
Herbert JonesNOP20.0024.7026.59+1.8921.8123.33+1.5234.5334.96+0.4433.6334.00+0.37
Josh HartNYK44.4030.1231.96+1.8429.7233.32+3.6039.8942.32+2.4432.0034.41+2.41
Dejounte MurrayNOP30.4031.5533.17+1.6220.3022.14+1.8434.6735.10+0.4330.4731.00+0.53
Jevon CarterORL6.0016.6915.07-1.6219.5417.41-2.1332.0527.95-4.1022.5019.00-3.50
Daeqwon PlowdenSAC26.6021.1922.68+1.4917.2422.29+5.0530.6332.50+1.8727.0029.00+2.00
Derik QueenNOP27.2021.5720.29-1.2822.2120.28-1.9431.8830.84-1.0420.0019.00-1.00
Yves MissiNOP14.3020.0121.18+1.1718.1721.64+3.4731.0632.35+1.2921.0023.00+2.00
Precious AchiuwaSAC37.8029.1328.08-1.0526.0728.45+2.3837.7639.90+2.1430.0029.73-0.27
Malik MonkSAC28.9027.9326.92-1.0123.6927.12+3.4242.7642.33-0.4329.0028.00-1.00
Brandon MillerCHA31.1033.4134.40+0.9931.9534.15+2.2042.9244.09+1.1832.0033.00+1.00
Miles BridgesCHA26.5027.8528.79+0.9428.1230.22+2.1035.8338.44+2.6128.0029.00+1.00
OG AnunobyNYK24.6032.3233.22+0.9031.9434.42+2.4842.0143.38+1.3735.0036.05+1.05
Mitchell RobinsonNYK17.7018.6519.50+0.8518.1519.23+1.0829.4730.43+0.9619.0020.00+1.00
Kon KnueppelCHA49.2026.9127.74+0.8326.5828.58+2.0036.7837.76+0.9831.0032.00+1.00
Mikal BridgesNYK16.0027.3128.12+0.8125.2027.45+2.2534.7636.02+1.2633.0034.10+1.10
Karlo MatkovicNOP19.1017.7918.59+0.8017.0718.12+1.0528.8929.81+0.9218.0019.00+1.00
Jalen DurenDET61.5042.2841.52-0.7638.0539.51+1.4550.9949.95-1.0531.0032.00+1.00
Zion WilliamsonNOP38.2038.1838.01-0.1740.0440.75+0.7150.2550.33+0.0835.5634.21-1.35
Karl-Anthony TownsNYK18.6041.9741.85-0.1240.1841.72+1.5350.8751.28+0.4031.0031.00+0.00
Tobias HarrisDET36.3029.4629.57+0.1129.8733.19+3.3239.1040.43+1.3230.0031.00+1.00
Paolo BancheroORL50.3047.6147.54-0.0750.3751.98+1.6161.4856.69-4.7838.1737.00-1.17
Wendell CarterORL27.2028.0728.00-0.0730.7231.81+1.1043.6942.07-1.6229.0029.00+0.00
Maxime RaynaudSAC30.9035.9235.98+0.0631.6935.80+4.1149.9349.20-0.7435.5134.00-1.51
LaMelo BallCHA36.0038.8438.79-0.0539.5540.76+1.2150.3850.41+0.0331.0031.00+0.00
Desmond BaneORL30.0038.3438.29-0.0540.2441.92+1.6749.1845.54-3.6436.0635.00-1.06
Coby WhiteCHA20.6020.6920.65-0.0420.3121.40+1.0929.8930.10+0.2121.0021.00+0.00
Moussa DiabateCHA26.5028.8728.83-0.0428.1829.33+1.1440.8940.97+0.0829.0029.00+0.00
Grant WilliamsCHA8.7013.9113.89-0.0214.7314.80+0.0724.5626.18+1.6218.0018.00+0.00
Jalen BrunsonNYK48.9041.4141.42+0.0142.0343.96+1.9449.4850.13+0.6537.0037.43+0.43
Jalen SuggsORL19.8034.6334.62-0.0133.5134.71+1.1948.2846.46-1.8230.0030.00+0.00
DeMar DeRozanSAC56.7029.2729.27+0.0024.0428.48+4.4434.4235.31+0.8929.0029.00+0.00
Jordan ClarksonNYK13.7016.8516.85+0.0014.6615.95+1.2925.1925.55+0.3622.0022.07+0.07
Marcus SasserDET8.9022.2322.23+0.0025.4225.04-0.3736.3335.95-0.3922.1722.00-0.17
Click a player row
Start/end base, adjusted, ceiling, actual, and minutes will appear here.
Last 14 Days
Base from NBAPlayers when available, otherwise latest daily snapshot base. Adjusted from latest daily snapshot, actual from NBAPlayersHistory.
Sample0
Avg Base0.00
Avg Adj0.00
Avg Actual0.00
Hit vs Base0%
Hit vs Adj0%

Top intraday value movers

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling SmashContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF400027.2331.7428.60+1.37-3.1430.0020.80Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +0.71 | Step 16 +0.30Base +7.08 | Adj +9.56 | Min +8.00
Ausar Thompson
High ValueContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF650040.1843.8629.80-10.38-14.0634.0026.10Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +1.05 | Home +0.82 | Step 16 +0.30Base +9.30 | Adj +11.92 | Min +9.00
Daniss Jenkins
Minutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG750040.9943.2134.90-6.09-8.3139.0029.00Step 17 +1.50 | Home +0.81 | DvP -0.39 | Step 16 +0.30Base +10.62 | Adj +12.93 | Min +11.00
Jamal Cain
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSF410016.0518.5020.00+3.95+1.5019.0015.50Home +2.00Base -3.38 | Adj -2.41 | Min -4.00
Jevon Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG440015.0717.416.00-9.07-11.4119.0021.00Home +2.00 | DvP -0.45Base -1.62 | Adj -2.13 | Min -3.50
Dylan Cardwell
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC450022.7424.1810.00-12.74-14.1820.0022.20Min Spike +1.21 | Late Pts +1.21 | Step 34 +1.00 | Late Min +0.83 | Home -0.47Base -3.37 | Adj -0.56 | Min -4.07
Tristan da Silva
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSF530026.4129.8421.40-5.01-8.4430.0030.60Home +2.00 | Step 23 +1.00 | DvP -0.08Base +4.35 | Adj +5.27 | Min +5.00
Jeremiah Fears
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG440016.7618.4925.40+8.64+6.9119.0020.20Min Spike +1.96 | Late Pts +1.96 | Late Min +1.52 | Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.88Base -3.05 | Adj -0.58 | Min -4.05
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterContrarianStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPF970047.5451.9850.30+2.76-1.6837.0035.50Step 23 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.97 | DvP +0.83Base -0.07 | Adj +1.61 | Min -1.17
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSG770038.2941.9230.00-8.29-11.9235.0034.20DvP +1.33 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.79Base -0.05 | Adj +1.67 | Min -1.06
Daeqwon Plowden
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF480022.6822.2926.60+3.92+4.3129.0029.20Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.95 | Home -0.43Base +1.49 | Adj +5.05 | Min +2.00
Josh Hart
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSF710031.9633.3244.40+12.44+11.0834.0029.20Step 28 +1.28 | Home -0.65 | Dir Min +0.41 | Step 16 +0.30 | Min Spike +0.23Base +1.84 | Adj +3.60 | Min +2.41

Players we underweighted (Actual - Adj highest)

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
DeMar DeRozan
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF710029.2728.4856.70+27.43+28.2229.0030.20DvP -1.23 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.56Base +0.00 | Adj +4.44 | Min +0.00
Jalen Duren
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETC840041.5239.5161.50+19.98+21.9932.0028.10DvP -5.24 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home +0.73Base -0.76 | Adj +1.45 | Min +1.00
Kon Knueppel
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHASF630027.7428.5849.20+21.46+20.6232.0028.80DvP -1.78 | Step 28 +1.10 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.52Base +0.83 | Adj +2.00 | Min +1.00
Josh Hart
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSF710031.9633.3244.40+12.44+11.0834.0029.20Step 28 +1.28 | Home -0.65 | Dir Min +0.41 | Step 16 +0.30 | Min Spike +0.23Base +1.84 | Adj +3.60 | Min +2.41
Precious Achiuwa
ChalkHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPF670028.0828.4537.80+9.72+9.3529.0033.10DvP +0.99 | Step 33 -0.88 | Min Spike +0.86 | Late Pts +0.86 | Late Min +0.73Base -1.05 | Adj +2.38 | Min -0.27
Dejounte Murray
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG790033.1722.1430.40-2.77+8.2631.0028.00Step 2 +4.20 | DvP -1.73 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.63Base +1.62 | Adj +1.84 | Min +0.53
Derik Queen
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPF450020.2920.2827.20+6.91+6.9219.0017.90Home -0.41 | DvP +0.40Base -1.28 | Adj -1.94 | Min -1.00
Jeremiah Fears
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG440016.7618.4925.40+8.64+6.9119.0020.20Min Spike +1.96 | Late Pts +1.96 | Late Min +1.52 | Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.88Base -3.05 | Adj -0.58 | Min -4.05
Jalen Brunson
Minutes MonsterChalkStudPossible Overtime
NYKPG900041.4243.9648.90+7.48+4.9437.0036.70DvP -3.84 | Step 2 +3.83 | Step 28 +1.69 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.76Base +0.01 | Adj +1.94 | Min +0.43
Daeqwon Plowden
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF480022.6822.2926.60+3.92+4.3129.0029.20Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.95 | Home -0.43Base +1.49 | Adj +5.05 | Min +2.00

Players we overweighted (Actual - Adj lowest)

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
Karl-Anthony Towns
ContrarianStudPossible Overtime
NYKC920041.8541.7218.60-23.25-23.1231.0030.20DvP -1.96 | Step 28 +1.60 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home -0.80Base -0.12 | Adj +1.53 | Min +0.00
Marcus Sasser
2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG410022.2325.048.90-13.33-16.1422.0018.30Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 33 -0.77 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP -0.21Base +0.00 | Adj -0.37 | Min -0.17
Jalen Suggs
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG690034.6234.7119.80-14.82-14.9130.0030.10Step 33 -1.07 | DvP -1.04 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.67Base -0.01 | Adj +1.19 | Min +0.00
Dylan Cardwell
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC450022.7424.1810.00-12.74-14.1820.0022.20Min Spike +1.21 | Late Pts +1.21 | Step 34 +1.00 | Late Min +0.83 | Home -0.47Base -3.37 | Adj -0.56 | Min -4.07
Ausar Thompson
High ValueContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF650040.1843.8629.80-10.38-14.0634.0026.10Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +1.05 | Home +0.82 | Step 16 +0.30Base +9.30 | Adj +11.92 | Min +9.00
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSG770038.2941.9230.00-8.29-11.9235.0034.20DvP +1.33 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.79Base -0.05 | Adj +1.67 | Min -1.06
Mikal Bridges
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSG590028.1227.4516.00-12.12-11.4534.0029.20DvP -1.56 | Step 28 +1.06 | Home -0.53 | Step 16 +0.30 | Dir Min +0.10Base +0.81 | Adj +2.25 | Min +1.10
Jevon Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG440015.0717.416.00-9.07-11.4119.0021.00Home +2.00 | DvP -0.45Base -1.62 | Adj -2.13 | Min -3.50
Devin Carter
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPG590029.3532.8021.60-7.75-11.2028.0020.90Min Spike +1.27 | Late Pts +1.27 | Step 34 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Late Min +0.96Base -2.17 | Adj +4.05 | Min -1.86
OG Anunoby
Minutes MonsterChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSF680033.2234.4224.60-8.62-9.8236.0033.40Step 28 +1.32 | Home -0.67 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP +0.21Base +0.90 | Adj +2.48 | Min +1.05

All players: base vs snapshot vs actual

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
Jalen Duren
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETC840041.5239.5161.50+19.98+21.9932.0028.10DvP -5.24 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home +0.73Base -0.76 | Adj +1.45 | Min +1.00
DeMar DeRozan
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF710029.2728.4856.70+27.43+28.2229.0030.20DvP -1.23 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.56Base +0.00 | Adj +4.44 | Min +0.00
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterContrarianStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPF970047.5451.9850.30+2.76-1.6837.0035.50Step 23 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.97 | DvP +0.83Base -0.07 | Adj +1.61 | Min -1.17
Kon Knueppel
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHASF630027.7428.5849.20+21.46+20.6232.0028.80DvP -1.78 | Step 28 +1.10 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.52Base +0.83 | Adj +2.00 | Min +1.00
Jalen Brunson
Minutes MonsterChalkStudPossible Overtime
NYKPG900041.4243.9648.90+7.48+4.9437.0036.70DvP -3.84 | Step 2 +3.83 | Step 28 +1.69 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.76Base +0.01 | Adj +1.94 | Min +0.43
Josh Hart
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSF710031.9633.3244.40+12.44+11.0834.0029.20Step 28 +1.28 | Home -0.65 | Dir Min +0.41 | Step 16 +0.30 | Min Spike +0.23Base +1.84 | Adj +3.60 | Min +2.41
Zion Williamson
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPF760038.0140.7538.20+0.19-2.5533.0030.80Min Spike +1.80 | Late Pts +1.80 | Late Min +1.21 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.81Base -0.17 | Adj +0.71 | Min -1.35
Precious Achiuwa
ChalkHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPF670028.0828.4537.80+9.72+9.3529.0033.10DvP +0.99 | Step 33 -0.88 | Min Spike +0.86 | Late Pts +0.86 | Late Min +0.73Base -1.05 | Adj +2.38 | Min -0.27
Tobias Harris
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPF640029.5733.1936.30+6.73+3.1131.0027.60Step 17 +1.50 | Step 16 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.58 | DvP -0.46Base +0.11 | Adj +3.32 | Min +1.00
LaMelo Ball
ChalkStudStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPG910038.7940.7636.00-2.79-4.7631.0026.90Step 28 +1.57 | DvP -1.35 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.75Base -0.05 | Adj +1.21 | Min +0.00
Daniss Jenkins
Minutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG750040.9943.2134.90-6.09-8.3139.0029.00Step 17 +1.50 | Home +0.81 | DvP -0.39 | Step 16 +0.30Base +10.62 | Adj +12.93 | Min +11.00
Brandon Miller
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHASF740034.4034.1531.10-3.30-3.0533.0030.70DvP -2.21 | Step 28 +1.31 | Home +0.64Base +0.99 | Adj +2.20 | Min +1.00
Maxime Raynaud
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC720035.9835.8030.90-5.08-4.9034.0032.60Step 34 +1.00 | Home -0.71 | DvP -0.47Base +0.06 | Adj +4.11 | Min -1.51
Dejounte Murray
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG790033.1722.1430.40-2.77+8.2631.0028.00Step 2 +4.20 | DvP -1.73 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.63Base +1.62 | Adj +1.84 | Min +0.53
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSG770038.2941.9230.00-8.29-11.9235.0034.20DvP +1.33 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.79Base -0.05 | Adj +1.67 | Min -1.06
Ausar Thompson
High ValueContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF650040.1843.8629.80-10.38-14.0634.0026.10Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +1.05 | Home +0.82 | Step 16 +0.30Base +9.30 | Adj +11.92 | Min +9.00
Saddiq Bey
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPSF660030.5226.7729.70-0.82+2.9335.0032.40DvP -3.20 | Home -0.55Base +3.34 | Adj +1.63 | Min +0.35
Malik Monk
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSG620026.9227.1228.90+1.98+1.7828.0022.00Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.53 | DvP -0.27Base -1.01 | Adj +3.42 | Min -1.00
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling SmashContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF400027.2331.7428.60+1.37-3.1430.0020.80Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +0.71 | Step 16 +0.30Base +7.08 | Adj +9.56 | Min +8.00
Wendell Carter
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLC540028.0031.8127.20-0.80-4.6129.0029.40Home +2.00 | Step 23 +1.00 | DvP +0.46Base -0.07 | Adj +1.10 | Min +0.00
Derik Queen
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPF450020.2920.2827.20+6.91+6.9219.0017.90Home -0.41 | DvP +0.40Base -1.28 | Adj -1.94 | Min -1.00
Daeqwon Plowden
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF480022.6822.2926.60+3.92+4.3129.0029.20Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.95 | Home -0.43Base +1.49 | Adj +5.05 | Min +2.00
Miles Bridges
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPF610028.7930.2226.50-2.29-3.7229.0029.00DvP -2.27 | Step 28 +1.16 | Step 23 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.53Base +0.94 | Adj +2.10 | Min +1.00
Moussa Diabate
Strong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAC580028.8329.3326.50-2.33-2.8329.0028.50DvP -2.63 | Home +2.00 | Step 28 +1.13Base -0.04 | Adj +1.14 | Min +0.00
Jeremiah Fears
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG440016.7618.4925.40+8.64+6.9119.0020.20Min Spike +1.96 | Late Pts +1.96 | Late Min +1.52 | Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.88Base -3.05 | Adj -0.58 | Min -4.05
OG Anunoby
Minutes MonsterChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSF680033.2234.4224.60-8.62-9.8236.0033.40Step 28 +1.32 | Home -0.67 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP +0.21Base +0.90 | Adj +2.48 | Min +1.05
Devin Carter
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPG590029.3532.8021.60-7.75-11.2028.0020.90Min Spike +1.27 | Late Pts +1.27 | Step 34 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Late Min +0.96Base -2.17 | Adj +4.05 | Min -1.86
Tristan da Silva
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSF530026.4129.8421.40-5.01-8.4430.0030.60Home +2.00 | Step 23 +1.00 | DvP -0.08Base +4.35 | Adj +5.27 | Min +5.00
Coby White
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHASG620020.6521.4020.60-0.05-0.8021.0020.40Step 13 +1.00 | DvP -0.65 | Home +0.40Base -0.04 | Adj +1.09 | Min +0.00
Herbert Jones
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPSF500026.5923.3320.00-6.59-3.3334.0029.60DvP -2.79 | Home -0.48Base +1.89 | Adj +1.52 | Min +0.37
Jamal Cain
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSF410016.0518.5020.00+3.95+1.5019.0015.50Home +2.00Base -3.38 | Adj -2.41 | Min -4.00
Jalen Suggs
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG690034.6234.7119.80-14.82-14.9130.0030.10Step 33 -1.07 | DvP -1.04 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.67Base -0.01 | Adj +1.19 | Min +0.00
Karlo Matkovic
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPC400018.5918.1219.10+0.51+0.9819.0018.00Home -0.37 | DvP -0.10Base +0.80 | Adj +1.05 | Min +1.00
Karl-Anthony Towns
ContrarianStudPossible Overtime
NYKC920041.8541.7218.60-23.25-23.1231.0030.20DvP -1.96 | Step 28 +1.60 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home -0.80Base -0.12 | Adj +1.53 | Min +0.00
Mitchell Robinson
Possible Overtime
NYKC490019.5019.2317.70-1.80-1.5320.0020.20Step 16 +1.00 | DvP -0.91 | Home -0.37Base +0.85 | Adj +1.08 | Min +1.00
Mikal Bridges
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSG590028.1227.4516.00-12.12-11.4534.0029.20DvP -1.56 | Step 28 +1.06 | Home -0.53 | Step 16 +0.30 | Dir Min +0.10Base +0.81 | Adj +2.25 | Min +1.10
Yves Missi
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPC430021.1821.6414.30-6.88-7.3423.0020.60Step 34 +1.00 | Home -0.42 | DvP -0.12Base +1.17 | Adj +3.47 | Min +2.00
Jordan Clarkson
ContrarianPossible Overtime
NYKSG420016.8515.9513.70-3.15-2.2522.0017.30DvP -0.93 | Home -0.32 | Step 16 +0.30 | Dir Min +0.07 | Min Spike +0.05Base +0.00 | Adj +1.29 | Min +0.07
Dylan Cardwell
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC450022.7424.1810.00-12.74-14.1820.0022.20Min Spike +1.21 | Late Pts +1.21 | Step 34 +1.00 | Late Min +0.83 | Home -0.47Base -3.37 | Adj -0.56 | Min -4.07
Marcus Sasser
2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG410022.2325.048.90-13.33-16.1422.0018.30Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 33 -0.77 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP -0.21Base +0.00 | Adj -0.37 | Min -0.17
Grant Williams
Strong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPF380013.8914.808.70-5.19-6.1018.0018.10Home +2.00 | DvP -1.09Base -0.02 | Adj +0.07 | Min +0.00
Jevon Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG440015.0717.416.00-9.07-11.4119.0021.00Home +2.00 | DvP -0.45Base -1.62 | Adj -2.13 | Min -3.50

DraftKings

snapshot_id 3057 | 2026-03-26 | slate All | notes prod

Snapshot vs Base

Base lineup actual264.40
Snapshot lineup actual268.50
Snapshot minus base+4.10

Perfect Reference

Perfect lineup actual351.50
Gap vs snapshot lineup+83.00
Snapshot ID3057
Snapshot timestamp used2026-03-26 22:45:04

Strategy Direction

Read each miss in three layers: provider/base move, snapshot levers, and actual outcome. If base moved correctly but adjusted made it worse, tune levers. If base was wrong, tune beneficiary and minutes logic first.

Base Projection Lineup (rebuilt from snapshot pool)

Objective291.58
Actual264.40
Salary49,700
SlotPlayerTeamSalaryBaseAdjActualProj Min
PG
Daniss Jenkins
High ValueMinutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET620042.0044.4938.0039.00
SG
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL740039.2243.1232.5035.00
SF
Ausar Thompson
2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET610039.0442.5125.5034.00
PF
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterChalkStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL910049.0753.5751.8037.00
C
Wendell Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL530028.7832.3328.3029.00
G
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling Smash2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET390028.4531.8031.3030.00
F
Zion Williamson
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
NOP730038.7841.7436.5033.00
UTIL
Herbert Jones
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
NOP440026.2423.0520.5034.00

Snapshot Projection Lineup (rebuilt from snapshot pool)

Objective315.25
Actual268.50
Salary49,000
SlotPlayerTeamSalaryBaseAdjActualProj Min
PG
Daniss Jenkins
High ValueMinutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET620042.0044.4938.0039.00
SG
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL740039.2243.1232.5035.00
SF
Ausar Thompson
High Value2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET610039.0442.5125.5034.00
PF
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterChalkStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL910049.0753.5751.8037.00
C
Wendell Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORL530028.7832.3328.3029.00
G
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling Smash2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET390028.4531.8031.3030.00
F
Tobias Harris
2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET590029.9434.7336.3031.00
UTIL
Devin Carter
ChalkHighest Over/UnderPossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
SAC510029.5032.7024.8028.00

Perfect Lineup Reference (actual points)

Objective351.50
Actual351.50
Salary49,000
SlotPlayerTeamSalaryBaseAdjActualProj Min
PG
Daniss Jenkins
StarterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET620042.0044.4938.0039.00
SG
Josh Hart
StarterMinutes MonsterChalkPossible Overtime
NYK680032.6631.9941.3034.00
SF
DeMar DeRozan
StarterPopped OffHigh ValueMinutes MonsterHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SAC730029.5728.5258.5029.00
PF
Tobias Harris
Starter2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET590029.9434.7336.3031.00
C
Jalen Duren
StarterPopped OffHigh ValueChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET840042.0439.6761.0032.00
G
Kevin Huerter
StarterHigh Value2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DET390028.4531.8031.3030.00
F
Derik Queen
High ValueContrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
NOP390020.3320.3729.8019.00
UTIL
Kon Knueppel
StarterPopped OffHigh ValueContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHA660029.2530.8655.3032.00

Saved Lineups

No NBASavedLineups rows found for this date/site.

Starting vs Ending Snapshot Projections

Sorted by biggest base-projection move. Click a player row to see the full day chart.
PlayerTeamActualStart BaseEnd BaseDelta BaseStart AdjEnd AdjDelta AdjStart CeilingEnd CeilingDelta CeilingStart MinEnd MinDelta Min
Daniss JenkinsDET38.0030.9942.00+11.0131.2244.49+13.2742.4253.21+10.7928.0039.00+11.00
Ausar ThompsonDET25.5029.8839.04+9.1630.0842.51+12.4439.6749.61+9.9425.0034.00+9.00
Kevin HuerterDET31.3020.9028.45+7.5522.4031.80+9.3932.3939.39+7.0122.0030.00+8.00
Tristan da SilvaORL24.0022.3926.81+4.4224.9630.40+5.4438.6141.90+3.2925.0030.00+5.00
Saddiq BeyNOP29.3028.3231.94+3.6226.2828.06+1.7834.7835.99+1.2232.0035.00+3.00
Jamal CainORL20.8019.8516.39-3.4621.4119.56-1.8529.4325.55-3.8823.0019.00-4.00
Dylan CardwellSAC10.8025.0821.82-3.2623.9622.91-1.0537.0632.78-4.2724.8720.68-4.19
Jeremiah FearsNOP25.5020.7117.54-3.1723.2019.34-3.8738.1632.65-5.5126.3820.51-5.87
Devin CarterSAC24.8031.7229.50-2.2228.0232.70+4.6843.2642.59-0.6730.7228.92-1.80
Herbert JonesNOP20.5024.2726.24+1.9722.3823.05+0.6728.5428.51-0.0332.0034.00+2.00
Josh HartNYK41.3030.7732.66+1.8930.1931.99+1.8039.7641.02+1.2532.0034.47+2.47
Dejounte MurrayNOP30.3034.5636.38+1.8223.6423.81+0.1737.9636.65-1.3132.5431.00-1.54
Jevon CarterORL7.0016.8315.20-1.6319.9317.59-2.3433.9829.80-4.1822.2519.00-3.25
Daeqwon PlowdenSAC29.8021.6023.10+1.5018.4122.50+4.0931.0132.50+1.4927.0029.00+2.00
Derik QueenNOP29.8021.6120.33-1.2822.3020.37-1.9429.6228.63-0.9920.0019.00-1.00
Yves MissiNOP12.5019.4220.56+1.1419.3421.09+1.7534.4134.00-0.4122.5423.00+0.46
Malik MonkSAC28.5029.2528.15-1.1026.9830.30+3.3347.1646.16-1.0030.9128.92-1.99
Precious AchiuwaSAC35.3029.5328.45-1.0826.3827.93+1.5638.0638.95+0.8930.0029.00-1.00
Brandon MillerCHA35.5034.9035.92+1.0235.7835.75-0.0344.6644.00-0.6532.0033.00+1.00
Miles BridgesCHA27.3028.6029.56+0.9631.2231.06-0.1635.1634.32-0.8428.0029.00+1.00
OG AnunobyNYK27.3032.0032.91+0.9132.1533.97+1.8251.3152.25+0.9535.0036.00+1.00
Kon KnueppelCHA55.3028.3929.25+0.8629.9630.86+0.9035.7735.84+0.0731.0032.00+1.00
Mikal BridgesNYK17.5027.6528.49+0.8427.0629.73+2.6731.8433.41+1.5733.0034.05+1.05
Mitchell RobinsonNYK16.5018.1318.96+0.8318.4918.56+0.0722.6622.93+0.2719.0020.00+1.00
Karlo MatkovicNOP17.3017.0617.88+0.8216.8317.91+1.0924.2725.30+1.0318.0019.00+1.00
Jalen DurenDET61.0042.6842.04-0.6443.9639.67-4.2952.8446.55-6.2931.0032.00+1.00
Tobias HarrisDET36.3029.6729.94+0.2731.9634.73+2.7738.2737.62-0.6530.0031.00+1.00
Zion WilliamsonNOP36.5038.9638.78-0.1840.7641.74+0.9846.9645.90-1.0635.9234.24-1.68
Karl-Anthony TownsNYK19.8043.6843.57-0.1143.8744.64+0.7747.7747.59-0.1931.0031.00+0.00
Paolo BancheroORL51.8049.1649.07-0.0951.6953.57+1.8765.0360.40-4.6338.5037.00-1.50
LaMelo BallCHA38.8041.5841.51-0.0743.8643.60-0.2647.2846.17-1.1031.0031.00+0.00
Wendell CarterORL28.3028.8528.78-0.0731.0232.33+1.3137.5436.12-1.4229.0029.00+0.00
Desmond BaneORL32.5039.2839.22-0.0639.8143.12+3.3148.6946.74-1.9536.0035.00-1.00
Coby WhiteCHA22.8021.7721.72-0.0523.6323.99+0.3628.9828.45-0.5321.0021.00+0.00
Moussa DiabateCHA22.3028.3528.31-0.0430.3729.10-1.2747.6246.43-1.1929.0029.00+0.00
Jalen BrunsonNYK50.5043.0343.06+0.0347.5145.62-1.8950.2548.07-2.1837.0037.43+0.43
Maxime RaynaudSAC28.8036.1036.13+0.0330.7335.79+5.0649.1349.81+0.6834.0034.00+0.00
Grant WilliamsCHA9.3014.1714.14-0.0316.0815.07-1.0121.2220.44-0.7818.0018.00+0.00
DeMar DeRozanSAC58.5029.5929.57-0.0226.4528.52+2.0737.0735.67-1.4030.0929.00-1.09
Jordan ClarksonNYK12.8017.7717.78+0.0116.4516.79+0.3522.3121.84-0.4722.0022.07+0.07
Jalen SuggsORL21.0034.2734.27+0.0033.3034.50+1.2048.0046.21-1.8030.0030.00+0.00
Marcus SasserDET10.5023.0023.00+0.0026.3025.92-0.3837.2236.83-0.3922.1722.00-0.17
Click a player row
Start/end base, adjusted, ceiling, actual, and minutes will appear here.
Last 14 Days
Base from NBAPlayers when available, otherwise latest daily snapshot base. Adjusted from latest daily snapshot, actual from NBAPlayersHistory.
Sample0
Avg Base0.00
Avg Adj0.00
Avg Actual0.00
Hit vs Base0%
Hit vs Adj0%

Top intraday value movers

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling Smash2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSG390028.4531.8031.30+2.85-0.5030.0020.80Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | DvP -0.45 | Step 16 +0.30Base +7.55 | Adj +9.39 | Min +8.00
Daniss Jenkins
High ValueMinutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG620042.0044.4938.00-4.00-6.4939.0029.00Step 17 +1.50 | Home +0.84 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP -0.14Base +11.01 | Adj +13.27 | Min +11.00
Ausar Thompson
High Value2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF610039.0442.5125.50-13.54-17.0134.0026.10Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +0.87 | Home +0.80 | Step 16 +0.30Base +9.16 | Adj +12.44 | Min +9.00
Jeremiah Fears
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG420017.5419.3425.50+7.96+6.1619.0020.20Min Spike +2.06 | Late Pts +2.06 | Late Min +1.51 | Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.89Base -3.17 | Adj -3.87 | Min -5.87
Jevon Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG380015.2017.597.00-8.20-10.5919.0021.00Home +2.00 | DvP -0.40Base -1.63 | Adj -2.34 | Min -3.25
Jamal Cain
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSG350016.3919.5620.80+4.41+1.2419.0015.50Home +2.00 | DvP +0.66Base -3.46 | Adj -1.85 | Min -4.00
Dylan Cardwell
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC490021.8222.9110.80-11.02-12.1120.0022.20Step 34 +1.00 | Min Spike +0.92 | Late Pts +0.92 | Late Min +0.68 | Home -0.45Base -3.26 | Adj -1.05 | Min -4.19
Jalen Duren
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETC840042.0439.6761.00+18.96+21.3332.0028.10DvP -5.60 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home +0.73Base -0.64 | Adj -4.29 | Min +1.00
Tristan da Silva
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSF500026.8130.4024.00-2.81-6.4030.0030.60Home +2.00 | Step 23 +1.00 | DvP +0.08Base +4.42 | Adj +5.44 | Min +5.00
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterChalkStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPF910049.0753.5751.80+2.73-1.7737.0035.50Step 23 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +1.00 | DvP +0.83Base -0.09 | Adj +1.87 | Min -1.50
Moussa Diabate
Strong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAC570028.3129.1022.30-6.01-6.8029.0028.50DvP -2.33 | Home +2.00 | Step 28 +1.12Base -0.04 | Adj -1.27 | Min +0.00
Grant Williams
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPF310014.1415.079.30-4.84-5.7718.0018.10Home +2.00 | DvP -1.07Base -0.03 | Adj -1.01 | Min +0.00

Players we underweighted (Actual - Adj highest)

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
DeMar DeRozan
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF730029.5728.5258.50+28.93+29.9829.0030.20DvP -1.49 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.56Base -0.02 | Adj +2.07 | Min -1.09
Kon Knueppel
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHASG660029.2530.8655.30+26.05+24.4432.0028.80Step 28 +1.19 | DvP -1.14 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.56Base +0.86 | Adj +0.90 | Min +1.00
Jalen Duren
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETC840042.0439.6761.00+18.96+21.3332.0028.10DvP -5.60 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home +0.73Base -0.64 | Adj -4.29 | Min +1.00
Derik Queen
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPF390020.3320.3729.80+9.47+9.4319.0017.90DvP +0.45 | Home -0.42Base -1.28 | Adj -1.94 | Min -1.00
Josh Hart
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSG680032.6631.9941.30+8.64+9.3134.0029.20DvP -1.84 | Step 28 +1.23 | Home -0.62 | Dir Min +0.47 | Step 16 +0.30Base +1.89 | Adj +1.80 | Min +2.47
Precious Achiuwa
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPF720028.4527.9335.30+6.85+7.3729.0033.10DvP +0.93 | Step 33 -0.86 | Home -0.59Base -1.08 | Adj +1.56 | Min -1.00
Daeqwon Plowden
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF530023.1022.5029.80+6.70+7.3029.0029.20DvP -1.16 | Step 34 +1.00 | Home -0.44Base +1.50 | Adj +4.09 | Min +2.00
Dejounte Murray
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG760036.3823.8130.30-6.08+6.4931.0028.00Step 2 +4.20 | DvP -1.85 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.69Base +1.82 | Adj +0.17 | Min -1.54
Jeremiah Fears
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG420017.5419.3425.50+7.96+6.1619.0020.20Min Spike +2.06 | Late Pts +2.06 | Late Min +1.51 | Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.89Base -3.17 | Adj -3.87 | Min -5.87
Jalen Brunson
Minutes MonsterStudPossible Overtime
NYKPG940043.0645.6250.50+7.44+4.8837.0036.70DvP -3.87 | Step 2 +3.83 | Step 28 +1.75 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.79Base +0.03 | Adj -1.89 | Min +0.43

Players we overweighted (Actual - Adj lowest)

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
Karl-Anthony Towns
ChalkStudPossible Overtime
NYKPF950043.5744.6419.80-23.77-24.8431.0030.20Step 28 +1.72 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home -0.86 | DvP -0.82Base -0.11 | Adj +0.77 | Min +0.00
Ausar Thompson
High Value2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF610039.0442.5125.50-13.54-17.0134.0026.10Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +0.87 | Home +0.80 | Step 16 +0.30Base +9.16 | Adj +12.44 | Min +9.00
Marcus Sasser
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG540023.0025.9210.50-12.50-15.4222.0018.30Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 33 -0.80 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP -0.08Base +0.00 | Adj -0.38 | Min -0.17
Jalen Suggs
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG670034.2734.5021.00-13.27-13.5030.0030.10Step 33 -1.07 | Step 13 +1.00 | DvP -0.90 | Home +0.67Base +0.00 | Adj +1.20 | Min +0.00
Mikal Bridges
Possible Overtime
NYKSF580028.4929.7317.50-10.99-12.2334.0029.20Step 28 +1.14 | Home -0.58 | DvP +0.33 | Step 16 +0.30Base +0.84 | Adj +2.67 | Min +1.05
Dylan Cardwell
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC490021.8222.9110.80-11.02-12.1120.0022.20Step 34 +1.00 | Min Spike +0.92 | Late Pts +0.92 | Late Min +0.68 | Home -0.45Base -3.26 | Adj -1.05 | Min -4.19
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSG740039.2243.1232.50-6.72-10.6235.0034.20DvP +1.57 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.82Base -0.06 | Adj +3.31 | Min -1.00
Jevon Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG380015.2017.597.00-8.20-10.5919.0021.00Home +2.00 | DvP -0.40Base -1.63 | Adj -2.34 | Min -3.25
Yves Missi
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPC400020.5621.0912.50-8.06-8.5923.0020.60Step 34 +1.00 | Home -0.41 | DvP -0.06Base +1.14 | Adj +1.75 | Min +0.46
Devin Carter
ChalkHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPG510029.5032.7024.80-4.70-7.9028.0020.90Min Spike +1.17 | Late Pts +1.17 | Step 34 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Late Min +0.92Base -2.22 | Adj +4.68 | Min -1.80

All players: base vs snapshot vs actual

PlayerTeamPosSalaryBaseAdjActualAct-BaseAct-AdjProj MinRoll10Major leversIntraday provider move
Jalen Duren
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETC840042.0439.6761.00+18.96+21.3332.0028.10DvP -5.60 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home +0.73Base -0.64 | Adj -4.29 | Min +1.00
DeMar DeRozan
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF730029.5728.5258.50+28.93+29.9829.0030.20DvP -1.49 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.56Base -0.02 | Adj +2.07 | Min -1.09
Kon Knueppel
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHASG660029.2530.8655.30+26.05+24.4432.0028.80Step 28 +1.19 | DvP -1.14 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.56Base +0.86 | Adj +0.90 | Min +1.00
Paolo Banchero
Minutes MonsterChalkStudHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPF910049.0753.5751.80+2.73-1.7737.0035.50Step 23 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +1.00 | DvP +0.83Base -0.09 | Adj +1.87 | Min -1.50
Jalen Brunson
Minutes MonsterStudPossible Overtime
NYKPG940043.0645.6250.50+7.44+4.8837.0036.70DvP -3.87 | Step 2 +3.83 | Step 28 +1.75 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.79Base +0.03 | Adj -1.89 | Min +0.43
Josh Hart
ChalkPossible Overtime
NYKSG680032.6631.9941.30+8.64+9.3134.0029.20DvP -1.84 | Step 28 +1.23 | Home -0.62 | Dir Min +0.47 | Step 16 +0.30Base +1.89 | Adj +1.80 | Min +2.47
LaMelo Ball
ChalkStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPG870041.5143.6038.80-2.71-4.8031.0026.90Step 28 +1.68 | DvP -1.39 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.80Base -0.07 | Adj -0.26 | Min +0.00
Daniss Jenkins
High ValueMinutes MonsterChalk2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG620042.0044.4938.00-4.00-6.4939.0029.00Step 17 +1.50 | Home +0.84 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP -0.14Base +11.01 | Adj +13.27 | Min +11.00
Zion Williamson
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPF730038.7841.7436.50-2.28-5.2433.0030.80Min Spike +1.93 | Late Pts +1.93 | Late Min +1.24 | Step 13 +1.00 | DvP +0.86Base -0.18 | Adj +0.98 | Min -1.68
Tobias Harris
2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPF590029.9434.7336.30+6.36+1.5731.0027.60Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 16 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | DvP -0.71Base +0.27 | Adj +2.77 | Min +1.00
Brandon Miller
Strong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHASF770035.9235.7535.50-0.42-0.2533.0030.70DvP -2.22 | Step 28 +1.38 | Home +0.67Base +1.02 | Adj -0.03 | Min +1.00
Precious Achiuwa
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPF720028.4527.9335.30+6.85+7.3729.0033.10DvP +0.93 | Step 33 -0.86 | Home -0.59Base -1.08 | Adj +1.56 | Min -1.00
Desmond Bane
ChalkHighest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSG740039.2243.1232.50-6.72-10.6235.0034.20DvP +1.57 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.82Base -0.06 | Adj +3.31 | Min -1.00
Kevin Huerter
High ValueCeiling Smash2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSG390028.4531.8031.30+2.85-0.5030.0020.80Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | DvP -0.45 | Step 16 +0.30Base +7.55 | Adj +9.39 | Min +8.00
Dejounte Murray
Chalk2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG760036.3823.8130.30-6.08+6.4931.0028.00Step 2 +4.20 | DvP -1.85 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home -0.69Base +1.82 | Adj +0.17 | Min -1.54
Daeqwon Plowden
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACSF530023.1022.5029.80+6.70+7.3029.0029.20DvP -1.16 | Step 34 +1.00 | Home -0.44Base +1.50 | Adj +4.09 | Min +2.00
Derik Queen
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPF390020.3320.3729.80+9.47+9.4319.0017.90DvP +0.45 | Home -0.42Base -1.28 | Adj -1.94 | Min -1.00
Saddiq Bey
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPSF680031.9428.0629.30-2.64+1.2435.0032.40DvP -3.31 | Home -0.57Base +3.62 | Adj +1.78 | Min +3.00
Maxime Raynaud
Highest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC710036.1335.7928.80-7.33-6.9934.0032.60Step 34 +1.00 | Home -0.71 | DvP -0.63Base +0.03 | Adj +5.06 | Min +0.00
Malik Monk
ChalkHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPG580028.1530.3028.50+0.35-1.8028.0022.00Min Spike +1.12 | Late Pts +1.12 | Step 13 +1.00 | Late Min +0.92 | DvP +0.63Base -1.10 | Adj +3.33 | Min -1.99
Wendell Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLC530028.7832.3328.30-0.48-4.0329.0029.40Home +2.00 | Step 23 +1.00 | DvP +0.21Base -0.07 | Adj +1.31 | Min +0.00
OG Anunoby
Minutes MonsterPossible Overtime
NYKPF670032.9133.9727.30-5.61-6.6736.0033.40Step 28 +1.31 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home -0.65 | DvP -0.62Base +0.91 | Adj +1.82 | Min +1.00
Miles Bridges
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPF600029.5631.0627.30-2.26-3.7629.0029.00DvP -2.24 | Step 28 +1.19 | Step 23 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Home +0.55Base +0.96 | Adj -0.16 | Min +1.00
Ausar Thompson
High Value2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETSF610039.0442.5125.50-13.54-17.0134.0026.10Step 17 +1.50 | DvP +0.87 | Home +0.80 | Step 16 +0.30Base +9.16 | Adj +12.44 | Min +9.00
Jeremiah Fears
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPG420017.5419.3425.50+7.96+6.1619.0020.20Min Spike +2.06 | Late Pts +2.06 | Late Min +1.51 | Step 34 +1.00 | DvP -0.89Base -3.17 | Adj -3.87 | Min -5.87
Devin Carter
ChalkHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACPG510029.5032.7024.80-4.70-7.9028.0020.90Min Spike +1.17 | Late Pts +1.17 | Step 34 +1.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | Late Min +0.92Base -2.22 | Adj +4.68 | Min -1.80
Tristan da Silva
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSF500026.8130.4024.00-2.81-6.4030.0030.60Home +2.00 | Step 23 +1.00 | DvP +0.08Base +4.42 | Adj +5.44 | Min +5.00
Coby White
Strong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPG500021.7223.9922.80+1.08-1.1921.0020.40Home +2.00 | Step 13 +1.00 | DvP -0.73Base -0.05 | Adj +0.36 | Min +0.00
Moussa Diabate
Strong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAC570028.3129.1022.30-6.01-6.8029.0028.50DvP -2.33 | Home +2.00 | Step 28 +1.12Base -0.04 | Adj -1.27 | Min +0.00
Jalen Suggs
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG670034.2734.5021.00-13.27-13.5030.0030.10Step 33 -1.07 | Step 13 +1.00 | DvP -0.90 | Home +0.67Base +0.00 | Adj +1.20 | Min +0.00
Jamal Cain
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLSG350016.3919.5620.80+4.41+1.2419.0015.50Home +2.00 | DvP +0.66Base -3.46 | Adj -1.85 | Min -4.00
Herbert Jones
2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPSF440026.2423.0520.50-5.74-2.5534.0029.60DvP -2.72 | Home -0.47Base +1.97 | Adj +0.67 | Min +2.00
Karl-Anthony Towns
ChalkStudPossible Overtime
NYKPF950043.5744.6419.80-23.77-24.8431.0030.20Step 28 +1.72 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home -0.86 | DvP -0.82Base -0.11 | Adj +0.77 | Min +0.00
Mikal Bridges
Possible Overtime
NYKSF580028.4929.7317.50-10.99-12.2334.0029.20Step 28 +1.14 | Home -0.58 | DvP +0.33 | Step 16 +0.30Base +0.84 | Adj +2.67 | Min +1.05
Karlo Matkovic
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPPF370017.8817.9117.30-0.58-0.6119.0018.00DvP +0.40 | Home -0.37Base +0.82 | Adj +1.09 | Min +1.00
Mitchell Robinson
Possible Overtime
NYKC450018.9618.5616.50-2.46-2.0620.0020.20DvP -1.06 | Step 16 +1.00 | Home -0.36Base +0.83 | Adj +0.07 | Min +1.00
Jordan Clarkson
Possible Overtime
NYKSG380017.7816.7912.80-4.98-3.9922.0017.30DvP -1.00 | Home -0.34 | Step 16 +0.30 | Dir Min +0.07 | Min Spike +0.05Base +0.01 | Adj +0.35 | Min +0.07
Yves Missi
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderBlowout Watch
NOPC400020.5621.0912.50-8.06-8.5923.0020.60Step 34 +1.00 | Home -0.41 | DvP -0.06Base +1.14 | Adj +1.75 | Min +0.46
Dylan Cardwell
ContrarianHighest Over/UnderPossible Blowout
SACC490021.8222.9110.80-11.02-12.1120.0022.20Step 34 +1.00 | Min Spike +0.92 | Late Pts +0.92 | Late Min +0.68 | Home -0.45Base -3.26 | Adj -1.05 | Min -4.19
Marcus Sasser
Contrarian2nd Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
DETPG540023.0025.9210.50-12.50-15.4222.0018.30Home +2.00 | Step 17 +1.50 | Step 33 -0.80 | Step 16 +0.30 | DvP -0.08Base +0.00 | Adj -0.38 | Min -0.17
Grant Williams
ContrarianStrong FavoriteBlowout WatchHigh Team Total
CHAPF310014.1415.079.30-4.84-5.7718.0018.10Home +2.00 | DvP -1.07Base -0.03 | Adj -1.01 | Min +0.00
Jevon Carter
Highest Over/UnderStrong FavoritePossible BlowoutHigh Team Total
ORLPG380015.2017.597.00-8.20-10.5919.0021.00Home +2.00 | DvP -0.40Base -1.63 | Adj -2.34 | Min -3.25