NBA Machine Learning Projections
Compare baseline projections, same-day snapshot context, player-history proof, and XGBoost probability signals before choosing cash or GPP lineup builds.
How To Use This Page
Start with the tracked Cash and GPP lineups, then use the player boards to understand which players are model-supported upside, volatile, or downside risk.
1. Start With The Lineups
- Tracked Cash Lineup favors stable minutes, safer projection range, and lower downside.
- Tracked GPP Lineup allows more volatility when the ceiling and leverage signals justify it.
- Use alternates when you want similar builds without locking into the first lineup.
2. Read The Boards
- Top Upside is where the model sees the strongest over-base opportunity.
- Middle / Volatile means useful upside may exist, but the signal is less clean.
- Downside Risk highlights players the model is warning against.
3. Key Metrics
- Base is the starting projection; Snapshot FP includes same-day context.
- XGB Delta and Over % show the model's lean versus the base projection.
- Cash/GPP Score, Ceiling, and Smash are the main action signals.
DraftKings
Snapshot date 2026-05-26 | model global_xgboost | train 7190 | holdout 149
Scored Players
14
Top Upside Tags
6
Avg Model Delta
-0.24
Avg Over Prob
32.8%
Avg Final Rank
0.93
Tracked Cash Lineup
Best stable build from the consolidated score. Cash removes insufficient-history, hard-downside, and hard negative-XGB / no-opportunity rows.
No valid cash lineup yet.
Eligible 6 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Under tag 6 | Hard downside risk 2
Slot coverage PG:0 | SG:0 | SF:0 | PF:0 | C:0 | G:0 | F:0 | UTIL:0
Eligible 6 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Under tag 6 | Hard downside risk 2
Slot coverage PG:0 | SG:0 | SF:0 | PF:0 | C:0 | G:0 | F:0 | UTIL:0
Tracked Cash Alternates
Best swap paths if you want to move off the primary cash build.
No cash alternates available.
Tracked GPP Lineup
Best upside build from the consolidated score. GPP keeps volatility, but still removes dead negative-XGB filler and weak insufficient-history rows.
No valid GPP lineup yet.
Eligible 13 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Hard downside risk 1
Slot coverage PG:0 | SG:0 | SF:0 | PF:0 | C:0 | G:0 | F:0 | UTIL:0
Eligible 13 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Hard downside risk 1
Slot coverage PG:0 | SG:0 | SF:0 | PF:0 | C:0 | G:0 | F:0 | UTIL:0
Tracked GPP Alternates
Best upside swap paths if you want to move off the primary GPP build.
No GPP alternates available.
Top Upside Board
Players with the cleanest over-base signal for ceiling, value, or tournament upside.
Victor Wembanyama
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $13,000
Show details
Base58.14
Snap Δ+0.20
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+1.01
Over %48.3%
GPP64.77
upside
Victor Wembanyama
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $13,000
Show details
Base58.14
Snap Δ+0.20
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+1.01
Over %48.3%
GPP64.77
upside
Final Rank4.01
Base58.14
Snapshot FP58.34
Model FP59.15
Cash Score58.70
GPP Score64.77
Mixed Prob21.3%
Under Prob30.4%
Minutes36.00
Usage32.4%
Proof Mid Δ-0.14
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling85.78
Smash0.010
GPP Bonus4.00
Snapshot +0.20 | Proof neutral / near base -0.14 | XGBoost +1.01
Proof support: neutral / near base: team_rank_gap: Opponent better-ranked [lift +0.20, n=4]
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $12,000
Show details
Base52.72
Snap Δ+2.07
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+1.00
Over %44.6%
GPP58.94
upside
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $12,000
Show details
Base52.72
Snap Δ+2.07
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+1.00
Over %44.6%
GPP58.94
upside
Final Rank3.58
Base52.72
Snapshot FP54.79
Model FP53.72
Cash Score54.75
GPP Score58.94
Mixed Prob24.2%
Under Prob31.2%
Minutes38.91
Usage33.4%
Proof Mid Δ-3.07
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling69.20
Smash0.001
GPP Bonus3.30
Snapshot +2.07 | Proof neutral / near base -3.07 | XGBoost +1.00
Proof support: neutral / near base: Archetype x Environment: General + Competitive / close [lift +0.11, n=13]; Usage x Environment: 30%+ usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.11, n=13]; game_environment: Competitive / close [lift +0.11, n=13]; competitiveness: High [lift +0.11, n=13]; team_rank_gap: Small edge / neutral [lift +0.15, n=4]; moneyline: Favorite [lift +0.32, n=3]
Dylan Harper
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $5,800
Show details
Base18.90
Snap Δ-0.11
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+3.87
Over %44.8%
GPP29.58
upside
Dylan Harper
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $5,800
Show details
Base18.90
Snap Δ-0.11
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+3.87
Over %44.8%
GPP29.58
upside
Final Rank6.85
Base18.90
Snapshot FP18.79
Model FP22.77
Cash Score22.60
GPP Score29.58
Mixed Prob30.2%
Under Prob25.0%
Minutes23.00
Usage21.9%
Proof Mid Δ+12.01
Proof Adj+0.41
Proof Conf55.0%
Ceiling36.56
Smash0.006
GPP Bonus3.57
Snapshot -0.11 | Proof soft upside only +12.01 | XGBoost +3.87
Proof support: upside traces present, but not strong enough for a hard over call: Archetype x Environment: Fragile + Competitive / close [lift +0.12, n=7]; Stud x Usage x Environment: Low base + 20%-24.9% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.22, n=3]; dvp: Neutral DvP [lift +0.11, n=9]
Alex Caruso
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $6,400
Show details
Base21.01
Snap Δ+0.07
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.95
Over %40.1%
GPP26.39
upside
Alex Caruso
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $6,400
Show details
Base21.01
Snap Δ+0.07
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.95
Over %40.1%
GPP26.39
upside
Final Rank3.32
Base21.01
Snapshot FP21.08
Model FP21.96
Cash Score21.47
GPP Score26.39
Mixed Prob32.4%
Under Prob27.5%
Minutes24.00
Usage15.7%
Proof Mid Δ+1.89
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling33.73
Smash0.001
GPP Bonus2.55
Snapshot +0.07 | Proof neutral / near base +1.89 | XGBoost +0.95
Proof support: neutral / near base: Smash Tail x Role: Weak + Low [lift +0.09, n=13]; Injury Bonus x Role: Low + Low [lift +0.09, n=13]; Beneficiary x Recent Minutes: Medium + < 26 min [lift +0.10, n=11]; Usage x Minutes: < 20% usage + < 26 min [lift +0.10, n=11]; proj_usage: < 20% usage [lift +0.09, n=13]; role_confirmation: Low [lift +0.09, n=13]
Cason Wallace
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $5,000
Show details
Base18.98
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+1.33
Over %35.8%
GPP24.79
upside
Cason Wallace
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $5,000
Show details
Base18.98
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+1.33
Over %35.8%
GPP24.79
upside
Final Rank3.21
Base18.98
Snapshot FP19.00
Model FP20.31
Cash Score20.18
GPP Score24.79
Mixed Prob35.9%
Under Prob28.3%
Minutes25.00
Usage14.5%
Proof Mid Δ+5.77
Proof Adj+0.41
Proof Conf55.0%
Ceiling28.75
Smash0.002
GPP Bonus1.97
Snapshot +0.02 | Proof soft upside only +5.77 | XGBoost +1.33
Proof support: upside traces present, but not strong enough for a hard over call: ceiling: Strong ceiling [lift +0.32, n=6]; team_rank_gap: Small edge / neutral [lift +0.40, n=4]; Base x Ceiling: Low base + Strong ceiling [lift +0.15, n=4]; Ceiling x Minutes: Strong ceiling + < 26 min [lift +0.15, n=4]; home_away: Home [lift +0.15, n=10]; floor_value: Medium [lift +0.15, n=8]
Keldon Johnson
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $3,800
Show details
Base16.09
Snap Δ-0.04
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.55
Over %27.1%
GPP17.99
upside
Keldon Johnson
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $3,800
Show details
Base16.09
Snap Δ-0.04
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.55
Over %27.1%
GPP17.99
upside
Final Rank1.19
Base16.09
Snapshot FP16.05
Model FP16.64
Cash Score15.92
GPP Score17.99
Mixed Prob38.5%
Under Prob34.5%
Minutes18.00
Usage21.1%
Proof Mid Δ-2.43
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling23.61
Smash0.004
GPP Bonus1.53
Snapshot -0.04 | Proof neutral / near base -2.43 | XGBoost +0.55
Proof support: neutral / near base: Base x Smash Tail: Low base + Weak [lift +0.09, n=11]; base_tier: Low base [lift +0.09, n=11]
Middle / Volatile Board
Players with mixed model support where lineup fit, salary, and contest type matter most.
Devin Vassell
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $7,000
Show details
Base27.60
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.73
Over %32.2%
GPP28.43
volatile
Devin Vassell
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $7,000
Show details
Base27.60
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.73
Over %32.2%
GPP28.43
volatile
Final Rank0.24
Base27.60
Snapshot FP27.62
Model FP26.87
Cash Score26.14
GPP Score28.43
Mixed Prob30.5%
Under Prob37.3%
Minutes35.00
Usage18.0%
Proof Mid Δ+0.74
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling35.87
Smash0.000
GPP Bonus1.65
Snapshot +0.02 | Proof neutral / near base +0.74 | XGBoost -0.73
Proof support: neutral / near base: home_away: Away [lift +0.23, n=9]; trip_stage: Early trip [lift +0.45, n=3]; Beneficiary x Starter: Medium + Starter [lift +0.20, n=4]; Archetype x Environment: General + Competitive / close [lift +0.12, n=15]; Usage x Environment: < 20% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.12, n=15]; game_environment: Competitive / close [lift +0.12, n=15]
Julian Champagnie
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $6,200
Show details
Base26.47
Snap Δ+0.06
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.95
Over %31.5%
GPP27.48
volatile
Julian Champagnie
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $6,200
Show details
Base26.47
Snap Δ+0.06
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.95
Over %31.5%
GPP27.48
volatile
Final Rank0.03
Base26.47
Snapshot FP26.53
Model FP25.52
Cash Score24.85
GPP Score27.48
Mixed Prob32.5%
Under Prob36.0%
Minutes33.00
Usage15.2%
Proof Mid Δ+1.58
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling36.06
Smash0.002
GPP Bonus1.93
Snapshot +0.06 | Proof neutral / near base +1.58 | XGBoost -0.95
Proof support: neutral / near base: floor_value: Medium [lift +0.24, n=11]
Downside Risk Board
Players carrying model downside, weaker proof support, or elevated under-projection risk.
Luguentz Dort
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $2,400
Show details
Base12.55
Snap Δ-0.08
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.66
Over %23.4%
GPP12.79
downside
Luguentz Dort
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $2,400
Show details
Base12.55
Snap Δ-0.08
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.66
Over %23.4%
GPP12.79
downside
Final Rank-0.80
Base12.55
Snapshot FP12.47
Model FP11.89
Cash Score11.00
GPP Score12.79
Mixed Prob35.2%
Under Prob41.4%
Minutes20.00
Usage14.1%
Proof Mid Δ-1.53
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling18.25
Smash0.031
GPP Bonus1.33
Snapshot -0.08 | Proof neutral / near base -1.53 | XGBoost -0.66
Proof support: neutral / near base: Stud x Usage x Environment: Low base + < 20% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.17, n=13]; Usage x Environment: < 20% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.17, n=13]; dvp: Negative DvP [lift +0.19, n=14]; game_environment: Competitive / close [lift +0.17, n=13]; competitiveness: High [lift +0.17, n=13]; moneyline: Favorite [lift +0.22, n=3]
Jared McCain
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $4,200
Show details
Base18.25
Snap Δ+0.40
Proofinsufficient history
XGB Δ-1.23
Over %26.0%
GPP21.22
downside
Jared McCain
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $4,200
Show details
Base18.25
Snap Δ+0.40
Proofinsufficient history
XGB Δ-1.23
Over %26.0%
GPP21.22
downside
Final Rank-1.14
Base18.25
Snapshot FP18.65
Model FP17.02
Cash Score16.51
GPP Score21.22
Mixed Prob32.2%
Under Prob41.8%
Minutes24.00
Usage23.2%
Proof Mid Δ0.00
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf0.0%
Ceiling32.33
Smash0.015
GPP Bonus2.90
Snapshot +0.40 | Proof insufficient history 0.00 | XGBoost -1.23
Proof support: insufficient player-specific history, abstaining.
Isaiah Hartenstein
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $4,600
Show details
Base24.39
Snap Δ+1.21
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.59
Over %20.0%
GPP26.01
downside
Isaiah Hartenstein
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $4,600
Show details
Base24.39
Snap Δ+1.21
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.59
Over %20.0%
GPP26.01
downside
Final Rank-1.96
Base24.39
Snapshot FP25.60
Model FP22.80
Cash Score22.97
GPP Score26.01
Mixed Prob40.4%
Under Prob39.5%
Minutes21.91
Usage16.2%
Proof Mid Δ-1.42
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling36.33
Smash0.041
GPP Bonus2.63
Snapshot +1.21 | Proof neutral / near base -1.42 | XGBoost -1.59
Proof support: neutral / near base: Stud x Usage x Environment: Mid base + < 20% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.15, n=10]; Archetype x Environment: Fragile + Competitive / close [lift +0.17, n=11]; home_away: Home [lift +0.24, n=9]; Base x Ceiling: Mid base + Good ceiling [lift +0.17, n=11]; Ceiling x Minutes: Good ceiling + < 26 min [lift +0.17, n=11]; Beneficiary x Recent Minutes: Medium + < 26 min [lift +0.10, n=16]
De'Aaron Fox
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $7,200
Show details
Base35.00
Snap Δ+0.03
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.53
Over %27.9%
GPP35.50
downside
De'Aaron Fox
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $7,200
Show details
Base35.00
Snap Δ+0.03
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.53
Over %27.9%
GPP35.50
downside
Final Rank-1.17
Base35.00
Snapshot FP35.03
Model FP33.47
Cash Score32.68
GPP Score35.50
Mixed Prob31.6%
Under Prob40.5%
Minutes33.00
Usage25.0%
Proof Mid Δ-0.70
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling46.12
Smash0.007
GPP Bonus2.26
Snapshot +0.03 | Proof neutral / near base -0.70 | XGBoost -1.53
Proof support: neutral / near base: Beneficiary x Recent Minutes: Medium + 32-35.9 min [lift +0.10, n=10]; recent_minutes: 32-35.9 min [lift +0.10, n=10]
Chet Holmgren
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $8,200
Show details
Base34.36
Snap Δ+0.79
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.87
Over %28.8%
GPP35.97
downside
Chet Holmgren
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $8,200
Show details
Base34.36
Snap Δ+0.79
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.87
Over %28.8%
GPP35.97
downside
Final Rank-2.59
Base34.36
Snapshot FP35.15
Model FP31.49
Cash Score31.26
GPP Score35.97
Mixed Prob27.9%
Under Prob43.3%
Minutes29.55
Usage21.9%
Proof Mid Δ-2.75
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling49.73
Smash0.005
GPP Bonus3.10
Snapshot +0.79 | Proof neutral / near base -2.75 | XGBoost -2.87
Proof support: neutral / near base: home_away: Home [lift +0.13, n=9]; Usage x Minutes: 20%-24.9% usage + 26-31.9 min [lift +0.13, n=9]; proj_minutes: 26-31.9 min [lift +0.13, n=12]
Stephon Castle
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $9,000
Show details
Base36.03
Snap Δ+0.05
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.44
Over %29.2%
GPP36.33
downside
Stephon Castle
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $9,000
Show details
Base36.03
Snap Δ+0.05
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.44
Over %29.2%
GPP36.33
downside
Final Rank-1.77
Base36.03
Snapshot FP36.08
Model FP33.59
Cash Score32.88
GPP Score36.33
Mixed Prob33.5%
Under Prob37.4%
Minutes35.00
Usage24.9%
Proof Mid Δ+0.41
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling45.28
Smash0.000
GPP Bonus1.85
Snapshot +0.05 | Proof neutral / near base +0.41 | XGBoost -2.44
Proof support: neutral / near base: Stud x Usage x Environment: High base + 20%-24.9% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.15, n=12]; Archetype x Environment: General + Competitive / close [lift +0.19, n=14]; Usage x Environment: 20%-24.9% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.19, n=14]; game_environment: Competitive / close [lift +0.19, n=14]; competitiveness: High [lift +0.19, n=14]; Beneficiary x Starter: Medium + Starter [lift +0.15, n=4]
FanDuel
Snapshot date 2026-05-26 | model global_xgboost | train 7424 | holdout 149
Scored Players
14
Top Upside Tags
6
Avg Model Delta
-1.03
Avg Over Prob
30.8%
Avg Final Rank
-0.17
Tracked Cash Lineup
Best stable build from the consolidated score. Cash removes insufficient-history, hard-downside, and hard negative-XGB / no-opportunity rows.
No valid cash lineup yet.
Eligible 5 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Under tag 6 | Hard downside risk 3
Slot coverage PG1:0 | PG2:0 | SG1:0 | SG2:0 | SF1:0 | SF2:0 | PF1:0 | PF2:0 | C:0
Eligible 5 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Under tag 6 | Hard downside risk 3
Slot coverage PG1:0 | PG2:0 | SG1:0 | SG2:0 | SF1:0 | SF2:0 | PF1:0 | PF2:0 | C:0
Tracked Cash Alternates
Best swap paths if you want to move off the primary cash build.
No cash alternates available.
Tracked GPP Lineup
Best upside build from the consolidated score. GPP keeps volatility, but still removes dead negative-XGB filler and weak insufficient-history rows.
No valid GPP lineup yet.
Eligible 9 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Hard downside risk 2 | Insufficient history/no model 1 | Dead negative combo 2
Slot coverage PG1:0 | PG2:0 | SG1:0 | SG2:0 | SF1:0 | SF2:0 | PF1:0 | PF2:0 | C:0
Eligible 9 | Missing salary 0 | Missing pos 0 | Hard downside risk 2 | Insufficient history/no model 1 | Dead negative combo 2
Slot coverage PG1:0 | PG2:0 | SG1:0 | SG2:0 | SF1:0 | SF2:0 | PF1:0 | PF2:0 | C:0
Tracked GPP Alternates
Best upside swap paths if you want to move off the primary GPP build.
No GPP alternates available.
Top Upside Board
Players with the cleanest over-base signal for ceiling, value, or tournament upside.
Victor Wembanyama
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $18,000
Show details
Base57.38
Snap Δ+0.20
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+0.71
Over %44.7%
GPP64.26
upside
Victor Wembanyama
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $18,000
Show details
Base57.38
Snap Δ+0.20
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+0.71
Over %44.7%
GPP64.26
upside
Final Rank2.99
Base57.38
Snapshot FP57.58
Model FP58.09
Cash Score57.93
GPP Score64.26
Mixed Prob18.9%
Under Prob36.4%
Minutes36.00
Usage32.4%
Proof Mid Δ+14.39
Proof Adj+0.41
Proof Conf55.0%
Ceiling85.12
Smash0.000
GPP Bonus4.00
Snapshot +0.20 | Proof soft upside only +14.39 | XGBoost +0.71
Proof support: upside traces present, but not strong enough for a hard over call: Beneficiary x Starter: Medium + Starter [lift +0.22, n=3]; Smash Tail x Role: Weak + High [lift +0.22, n=3]; Injury Bonus x Role: Low + High [lift +0.22, n=3]; starter_status: Starter [lift +0.22, n=3]; role_confirmation: High [lift +0.22, n=3]; role_strength: High [lift +0.22, n=3]
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $14,800
Show details
Base52.18
Snap Δ+2.03
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.93
Over %41.0%
GPP58.16
upside
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $14,800
Show details
Base52.18
Snap Δ+2.03
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.93
Over %41.0%
GPP58.16
upside
Final Rank2.77
Base52.18
Snapshot FP54.21
Model FP53.11
Cash Score53.98
GPP Score58.16
Mixed Prob21.4%
Under Prob37.6%
Minutes38.90
Usage33.4%
Proof Mid Δ-2.27
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling68.97
Smash0.000
GPP Bonus3.36
Snapshot +2.03 | Proof neutral / near base -2.27 | XGBoost +0.93
Proof support: neutral / near base: Usage x Minutes: 30%+ usage + 36+ min [lift +0.08, n=12]; moneyline: Favorite [lift +0.42, n=3]; proj_minutes: 36+ min [lift +0.08, n=12]; dvp: Negative DvP [lift +0.08, n=12]; ceiling: Good ceiling [lift +0.08, n=3]
Isaiah Hartenstein
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $5,400
Show details
Base24.23
Snap Δ-0.16
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.65
Over %29.2%
GPP27.51
upside
Isaiah Hartenstein
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $5,400
Show details
Base24.23
Snap Δ-0.16
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.65
Over %29.2%
GPP27.51
upside
Final Rank1.63
Base24.23
Snapshot FP24.07
Model FP24.88
Cash Score24.11
GPP Score27.51
Mixed Prob38.6%
Under Prob32.3%
Minutes21.00
Usage16.2%
Proof Mid Δ-0.76
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling33.85
Smash0.005
GPP Bonus1.95
Snapshot -0.16 | Proof neutral / near base -0.76 | XGBoost +0.65
Proof support: neutral / near base: team_total: Medium [lift +0.35, n=5]; dvp: Negative DvP [lift +0.35, n=5]; Ceiling x Minutes: Good ceiling + < 26 min [lift +0.13, n=9]; floor_value: Medium [lift +0.21, n=7]; Base x Ceiling: Mid base + Good ceiling [lift +0.10, n=8]; ceiling: Good ceiling [lift +0.13, n=9]
Devin Vassell
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $6,800
Show details
Base26.78
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.11
Over %32.0%
GPP27.33
upside
Devin Vassell
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $6,800
Show details
Base26.78
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.11
Over %32.0%
GPP27.33
upside
Final Rank0.04
Base26.78
Snapshot FP26.80
Model FP25.67
Cash Score25.00
GPP Score27.33
Mixed Prob33.8%
Under Prob34.2%
Minutes35.00
Usage18.0%
Proof Mid Δ+0.98
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling35.25
Smash0.000
GPP Bonus1.70
Snapshot +0.02 | Proof neutral / near base +0.98 | XGBoost -1.11
Proof support: neutral / near base: Stud x Usage x Environment: Mid base + < 20% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.08, n=15]; home_away: Away [lift +0.24, n=9]; Smash Tail x Role: Weak + High [lift +0.15, n=5]; Injury Bonus x Role: Low + High [lift +0.15, n=5]; Archetype x Environment: General + Competitive / close [lift +0.10, n=16]; Usage x Environment: < 20% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.10, n=16]
Dylan Harper
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $4,600
Show details
Base18.09
Snap Δ-0.10
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+0.38
Over %36.5%
GPP24.87
upside
Dylan Harper
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $4,600
Show details
Base18.09
Snap Δ-0.10
Proofsoft upside only
XGB Δ+0.38
Over %36.5%
GPP24.87
upside
Final Rank2.09
Base18.09
Snapshot FP17.99
Model FP18.47
Cash Score18.15
GPP Score24.87
Mixed Prob31.2%
Under Prob32.3%
Minutes23.00
Usage21.9%
Proof Mid Δ+6.95
Proof Adj+0.41
Proof Conf55.0%
Ceiling37.17
Smash0.018
GPP Bonus3.92
Snapshot -0.10 | Proof soft upside only +6.95 | XGBoost +0.38
Proof support: upside traces present, but not strong enough for a hard over call: dvp: Negative DvP [lift +0.12, n=8]
Cason Wallace
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $5,200
Show details
Base19.46
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.12
Over %32.6%
GPP23.62
upside
Cason Wallace
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $5,200
Show details
Base19.46
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ+0.12
Over %32.6%
GPP23.62
upside
Final Rank1.50
Base19.46
Snapshot FP19.48
Model FP19.58
Cash Score18.98
GPP Score23.62
Mixed Prob36.0%
Under Prob31.4%
Minutes25.00
Usage14.5%
Proof Mid Δ+0.05
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling30.31
Smash0.002
GPP Bonus2.18
Snapshot +0.02 | Proof neutral / near base +0.05 | XGBoost +0.12
Proof support: neutral / near base: Archetype x Environment: Wing + Competitive / close [lift +0.36, n=7]; archetype: Wing [lift +0.25, n=10]
Middle / Volatile Board
Players with mixed model support where lineup fit, salary, and contest type matter most.
Chet Holmgren
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $7,800
Show details
Base34.45
Snap Δ-0.14
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.97
Over %31.7%
GPP37.66
volatile
Chet Holmgren
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $7,800
Show details
Base34.45
Snap Δ-0.14
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.97
Over %31.7%
GPP37.66
volatile
Final Rank-0.31
Base34.45
Snapshot FP34.31
Model FP33.48
Cash Score32.53
GPP Score37.66
Mixed Prob26.4%
Under Prob41.9%
Minutes29.00
Usage21.9%
Proof Mid Δ-4.34
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling49.58
Smash0.006
GPP Bonus3.06
Snapshot -0.14 | Proof neutral / near base -4.34 | XGBoost -0.97
Proof support: neutral / near base: Stud x Usage x Environment: High base + 20%-24.9% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.09, n=14]; Usage x Minutes: 20%-24.9% usage + 26-31.9 min [lift +0.20, n=10]; Usage x Environment: 20%-24.9% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.09, n=14]; dvp: Negative DvP [lift +0.20, n=5]; home_away: Home [lift +0.10, n=10]; game_environment: Competitive / close [lift +0.09, n=14]
Alex Caruso
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $4,400
Show details
Base21.63
Snap Δ+0.88
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.95
Over %29.9%
GPP24.93
volatile
Alex Caruso
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $4,400
Show details
Base21.63
Snap Δ+0.88
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-0.95
Over %29.9%
GPP24.93
volatile
Final Rank-0.25
Base21.63
Snapshot FP22.51
Model FP20.68
Cash Score20.62
GPP Score24.93
Mixed Prob31.9%
Under Prob38.2%
Minutes24.73
Usage15.7%
Proof Mid Δ+1.02
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling35.45
Smash0.026
GPP Bonus2.92
Snapshot +0.88 | Proof neutral / near base +1.02 | XGBoost -0.95
Proof support: neutral / near base: Usage x Minutes: < 20% usage + < 26 min [lift +0.19, n=11]; Smash Tail x Role: Weak + Low [lift +0.09, n=13]; Injury Bonus x Role: Low + Low [lift +0.09, n=13]; Beneficiary x Recent Minutes: Medium + < 26 min [lift +0.10, n=11]; proj_usage: < 20% usage [lift +0.09, n=13]; role_confirmation: Low [lift +0.09, n=13]
Downside Risk Board
Players carrying model downside, weaker proof support, or elevated under-projection risk.
Luguentz Dort
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $1,800
Show details
Base12.16
Snap Δ-0.08
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.07
Over %23.4%
GPP12.42
downside
Luguentz Dort
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $1,800
Show details
Base12.16
Snap Δ-0.08
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-1.07
Over %23.4%
GPP12.42
downside
Final Rank-0.75
Base12.16
Snapshot FP12.08
Model FP11.09
Cash Score10.35
GPP Score12.42
Mixed Prob42.9%
Under Prob33.7%
Minutes20.00
Usage14.1%
Proof Mid Δ+1.89
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling17.23
Smash0.098
GPP Bonus1.60
Snapshot -0.08 | Proof neutral / near base +1.89 | XGBoost -1.07
Proof support: neutral / near base: moneyline: Favorite [lift +0.55, n=3]; dvp: Negative DvP [lift +0.15, n=5]
Keldon Johnson
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $2,400
Show details
Base15.51
Snap Δ-0.04
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.77
Over %21.8%
GPP14.40
downside
Keldon Johnson
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $2,400
Show details
Base15.51
Snap Δ-0.04
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.77
Over %21.8%
GPP14.40
downside
Final Rank-2.75
Base15.51
Snapshot FP15.47
Model FP12.74
Cash Score11.99
GPP Score14.40
Mixed Prob42.2%
Under Prob36.0%
Minutes18.00
Usage21.1%
Proof Mid Δ0.00
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling23.83
Smash0.052
GPP Bonus1.97
Snapshot -0.04 | Proof neutral / near base 0.00 | XGBoost -2.77
No strong player-specific correlations matched tonight.
Jared McCain
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $3,200
Show details
Base17.42
Snap Δ+0.38
Proofinsufficient history
XGB Δ-2.39
Over %24.4%
GPP19.36
downside
Jared McCain
OKC vs SAS | ALL | $3,200
Show details
Base17.42
Snap Δ+0.38
Proofinsufficient history
XGB Δ-2.39
Over %24.4%
GPP19.36
downside
Final Rank-2.16
Base17.42
Snapshot FP17.80
Model FP15.03
Cash Score14.60
GPP Score19.36
Mixed Prob38.8%
Under Prob36.7%
Minutes24.00
Usage23.2%
Proof Mid Δ0.00
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf0.0%
Ceiling31.43
Smash0.034
GPP Bonus3.00
Snapshot +0.38 | Proof insufficient history 0.00 | XGBoost -2.39
Proof support: insufficient player-specific history, abstaining.
Julian Champagnie
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $3,800
Show details
Base25.55
Snap Δ+0.06
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-3.65
Over %23.2%
GPP23.84
downside
Julian Champagnie
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $3,800
Show details
Base25.55
Snap Δ+0.06
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-3.65
Over %23.2%
GPP23.84
downside
Final Rank-4.24
Base25.55
Snapshot FP25.61
Model FP21.90
Cash Score20.98
GPP Score23.84
Mixed Prob28.2%
Under Prob48.6%
Minutes33.00
Usage15.2%
Proof Mid Δ+2.09
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling34.83
Smash0.089
GPP Bonus2.39
Snapshot +0.06 | Proof neutral / near base +2.09 | XGBoost -3.65
Proof support: neutral / near base: Beneficiary x Recent Minutes: Medium + 26-31.9 min [lift +0.12, n=15]; beneficiary: Medium [lift +0.12, n=15]; beneficiary_minutes: Low [lift +0.12, n=15]
De'Aaron Fox
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $8,400
Show details
Base34.03
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.30
Over %29.7%
GPP33.80
downside
De'Aaron Fox
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $8,400
Show details
Base34.03
Snap Δ+0.02
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.30
Over %29.7%
GPP33.80
downside
Final Rank-1.76
Base34.03
Snapshot FP34.05
Model FP31.73
Cash Score30.94
GPP Score33.80
Mixed Prob29.9%
Under Prob40.4%
Minutes33.00
Usage25.0%
Proof Mid Δ-1.29
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling45.33
Smash0.000
GPP Bonus2.26
Snapshot +0.02 | Proof neutral / near base -1.29 | XGBoost -2.30
Proof support: neutral / near base: Beneficiary x Recent Minutes: Medium + 32-35.9 min [lift +0.10, n=10]; archetype: General [lift +0.09, n=14]; recent_minutes: 32-35.9 min [lift +0.10, n=10]
Stephon Castle
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $10,200
Show details
Base35.16
Snap Δ+0.05
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.01
Over %31.6%
GPP36.11
downside
Stephon Castle
SAS vs OKC | ALL | $10,200
Show details
Base35.16
Snap Δ+0.05
Proofneutral / near base
XGB Δ-2.01
Over %31.6%
GPP36.11
downside
Final Rank-1.20
Base35.16
Snapshot FP35.21
Model FP33.15
Cash Score32.41
GPP Score36.11
Mixed Prob29.4%
Under Prob39.1%
Minutes35.00
Usage24.9%
Proof Mid Δ-1.36
Proof Adj0.00
Proof Conf35.0%
Ceiling43.37
Smash0.000
GPP Bonus1.64
Snapshot +0.05 | Proof neutral / near base -1.36 | XGBoost -2.01
Proof support: neutral / near base: Stud x Usage x Environment: High base + 20%-24.9% usage + Competitive / close [lift +0.14, n=14]; Beneficiary x Starter x Minutes: Medium + Starter + 32-35.9 min [lift +0.17, n=3]; Beneficiary x Starter: Medium + Starter [lift +0.25, n=4]; Injury Bonus x Role: Low + High [lift +0.25, n=4]; Smash Tail x Role: Weak + High [lift +0.10, n=5]; Archetype x Environment: General + Competitive / close [lift +0.17, n=15]